The Conference Board is sounding a cautionary tone in its economic forecast: “Less support from monetary and fiscal policy, and a weaker global economy will gradually slow the economy to below 2.5 percent growth by the end of 2019. Already, higher interest rates along with labor shortages in construction, and higher materials costs, have led to a cooler housing market.”

In San Francisco, there are several possible signs that more buyers are priced out of the single family home market and are switching to condos. First, single family home prices are up 14.5% over last year, to $1,617,000 while condos are up just 4.3% to $1,190,667. Second, home sales are down 1.4% year-to-date, while condo sales are up 8.5%. Third, the overbid percentage on single family homes dropped sharply to 111% from 119%.

Inventory remains very low for both homes and condos which is keeping it a sellers market.

Single Family Homes:

The three-month rolling average median sales price of $1,617,500 is up 14.5% over last year’s.

Year-to-date, new listings are down 3.1% while sales are down 0.7%.

August’s inventory of 1.7 months is 10% lower than in 2017.

82% of homes sold over their list price and the median percent of list price received was 111%.

Condo/Loft/TIC’s:

The three-month rolling average median sales price of $1,190,667 is up 4.3% over last year’s.

Year-to-date, new listings are up 1.2% while sales are up 8.8%.

August’s inventory of 1.8 months is 18% lower than in 2017.

60% of condo/loft/TIC’s sold over their list price and the median percent of list price received was 102%.