Two economic conditions currently in the U.S. may impact the Bay Area housing market. The first is the mounting trade wars with China, Europe, Mexico and Canada. The second is the rising interest rates (2 more are planned by the Federal Reserve Bank but with inflation rising there is talk of a third), tightening monetary policy and the converging yield curve, the latter of which has been a recession indicator in the past and is receiving a lot of press attention.

In Marin, at this point, housing sales are still strong but prices show some signs of weakening.

The number of new single family homes that came on the market in June was the lowest for that month in the past 10 years. And, with the number of sales not declining, inventory stayed at the very low level of just 1.4 months. Prices, however, have risen just 1% over the past year.

Likewise, very few new condo/townhome listings came on the market in June – half as many as in the preceding two Junes. Again, like single family homes, inventory is incredibly low at 1.1 months. Sales prices have been strong – up 18% year-on-year.

Single Family Homes:

The three-month rolling average median sales price of $1,515,000 is up 1% from last year.

Year-to-date, new listings are down 3.4% while sales are up 2.7%

June’s inventory of 1.4 months is 4.8% higher than in 2017.

The median percent of list price received was 98% in June.

Condo/Townhomes:

The three-month rolling average median sales price of $777,333 is up 18% over last year’s.

Year-to-date, new listings are down 5.2% while sales are down 3.5%.

June’s inventory of 1.1 months is 19% lower than in 2017.

The median percent of list price received was 101% in June.